SADC Outlook Favours Drier Conditions Across Much of Southern Africa During the 2026/27 Rainy Season

Swakopmund, Namibia, 27 August 2026: The Southern African Development Community (SADC), through the SADC Climate Services Centre and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), has released the regional climate outlook for the 2026/27 rainy season, indicating an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall across much of the central and southern parts of the region, while wetter conditions are favoured across parts of the north and northeast.

For October–November–December (OND) 2026, below-normal rainfall is favoured across much of Angola, southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Namibia, Botswana, most of South Africa, Eswatini and Lesotho. Normal to above-normal rainfall is favoured over parts of the northern region, while above-normal rainfall is expected over eastern DRC, most of Tanzania, the extreme northern parts of Malawi and Zambia, and Seychelles.

As the rainy season progresses, the drier signal is expected to persist across much of the central and southern parts of the region. During January–February–March (JFM) 2027, below-normal rainfall remains favoured across much of Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia and parts of South Africa. In contrast, normal to above-normal rainfall is favoured across much of the northern region, with above-normal rainfall particularly favoured over eastern Tanzania and Comoros.

The temperature outlook indicates an increased likelihood of above-average temperatures across most of the SADC region, except over some central areas where cooler-than-usual conditions are expected.

A key climate driver for the 2026/27 rainy season is the developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific. El Niño conditions are already established and are expected to strengthen further during the latter part of 2026, reaching strong to very strong intensity, with peak intensity expected around the OND 2026 period. Strong El Niño events are generally associated with an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall over large parts of central and southern SADC, although rainfall across the region is also influenced by other climate drivers.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral; however, the latest guidance indicates a high likelihood of a positive IOD developing and persisting through OND before weakening towards neutral conditions in early 2027.

The outlook was released following the Thirty-Third Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33), held in Swakopmund, Namibia, from 25 to 28 August 2026, bringing together climate experts from SADC Member States, the SADC Climate Services Centre and international climate partners.

The SADC Climate Services Centre will continue to provide regional climate updates, while NMHSs will issue detailed country-specific forecasts and advisories. Stakeholders and users are encouraged to closely follow updated sub-seasonal, monthly and shorter-range forecasts throughout the 2026/27 rainy season.

The full statement is attached below;