Summary

The southern and western parts of the contiguous Southern African Development Community (SADC), Mauritius and western Madagascar are expected to receive normal to above-normal total rainfall for the period October to December (OND) 2010. The north-eastern parts of continental SADC and rest of Madagascar are likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall (Figure 1).

For the period January to March (JFM) 2011, the bulk of SADC is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. However, the northern parts and the extreme south of continental SADC region are expected to receive normal to below-normal rainfall (Figure 2).

The Fourteenth Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum

The Fourteenth Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum was held in Harare, Zimbabwe from 26-27 August 2010 to present a consensus outlook for the 2010/2011 rainfall season over the SADC region. Climate scientists from the National Meteorological and/or Hydrological Services (NMHSs) within the SADC region and the SADC Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC) this formulated this outlook. Additional products were received from other global climate prediction centres, United Kingdom MetOffice, International Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), etc. This outlook covers the major rainfall season from October 2010 to March 2011.

This Outlook is relevant only to seasonal time-scales and relatively large areas and may not fully account for all factors that influence regional and national climate variability, such as local and month-to-month variations (intra-seasonal).

Users are strongly advised to contact the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for interpretation of this Outlook, additional guidance and updates.

Methodology

Using statistical and other climate prediction schemes, the climate scientists determined likelihoods of above-normal, normal and below-normal rainfall for each area (Figures 1 and 2). Above-normal rainfall is defined as lying within the wettest third of recorded (30 year, that is, 1971 -2000 mean) rainfall amounts; below-normal is defined as within the driest third of rainfall amounts and normal is the middle third, centred on the climatological median. The scientists also took into account that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in a cold, i.e. La Nina, phase which is projected to persist into early 2011.

Outlook

October to March is the main rainfall season over most of southern Africa. Owing to the differences in the rainfall-bearing systems, the rainy season has been divided into two three-month periods (i.e. OND and JFM).

Contributors

The Fourteenth Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum was hosted by the Meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe. Support was provided by SADC, Government of Finland, World Meteorological Organization, Food and Agricultural Organization, United States Assistance for International Development, Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Famines Early Warning Systems Network, Office of Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance, and other partners.

Attachments:

SARCOF14_Statement_260810_final.pdf [276897]