This is a control tool, used to help alleviate the threat to rural livelihoods posed by the bird pest Quelea quelea lathamii. The model attempts to forecast the breeding patterns of Quelea quelea lathamii over the whole of Southern Africa. It is based solely upon Meteosat cold cloud duration (CCD) data as an estimate of rainfall and knowledge of Quelea quelea lathamii breeding biology. We make use of the simple GOES Precipitation Index, where temperature below -38 degrees Celsius* is presumed to indicate cold cloud that is sufficient for rainfall to occur. Each hour of cold cloud is equated with 3mm of rainfall. The values for each quarter of a degree are summed and compared to the thresholds detailed below.

The numbers show degrees South latitude and degrees East longitude. National boundaries are in blue.

Darkening indicates Quelea quelea lathamii never recorded in this degree square. White indicates that the season has not yet started as insufficient rain has fallen. Green denotes the season start, as greater than 60mm rainfall within a two week period. Red indicates breeding can start, as more than 240mm rainfall within a six week period. Yellow indicates no new breeding will start, as it is 6 weeks after breeding was first possible.

{NOTE: In Tanzania, a different Quelea subspecies occurs, governed by different rainfall regimes.}

{*NOTE: At the RRSU, a slightly lower threshold temperature of -40 degrees Celcius is used for historical reasons. This may account for the small differences between forecast maps produced using the two threshold temperatures.}

Visit the Natural Resources Institute's SADC Quelea Breeding Forecast web site.